Donald Trump (left), President of the US, and Emmanuel Macron, President of France, maintain fingers throughout the closing press convention of the G7 summit on August 26, 2019. in Biarritz, France.
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European officers have been fast to congratulate Donald Trump after he defeated his Democratic rival Kamala Harris and returned to the White Home, regardless of the clear realization that renewed financial warfare could also be simply across the nook.
European diplomats and their respective leaders are preparing for the eventual Trump victory for greater than 12 months, placing a rising deal with insurance policies that might defend the European economic system from potential commerce disputes.
Some European officers woke as much as Wednesday’s election outcomes “not desirous to consider them,” a number of sources advised CNBC.
“I see it, [and] I do not wish to consider it,” mentioned an EU official, who requested to not be named due to the fragile nature of transatlantic relations. “However I am not as shocked as final time.”
Many European leaders didn’t get pleasure from Trump’s confrontational management type throughout his first presidency, and there have been a number of moments of rigidity with the previous White Home chief. In consequence, many in Brussels celebrated Joe Biden’s victory in 2020, hoping for higher engagement.
A second EU supply, who additionally didn’t wish to be named due to the sensitivity of the connection, mentioned: “Once more, not nice.”
However the supply echoed the previous worker’s sentiments, admitting: “No less than I am not that stunned [as in 2016].”
EU leaders will meet on Thursday
European Fee President Ursula von der Leyen, French President Emmanuel Macron, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán were among the first EU leaders to congratulate Trump on Wednesday morning.
Considerations about Trump will not be solely shared throughout the European continent. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who has spoken of his admiration for Trump previously, beforehand mentioned he would open bottle of champagne if Trump is elected.
EU leaders are resulting from meet for a daily assembly on Thursday and Friday within the Hungarian capital, Budapest, which is able to give them a chance to debate their future plans for the transatlantic relationship.
Trump has threatened to impose further 10% tariffs on European nations, whereas saying the European Union should “pay a heavy worth” for not shopping for sufficient American items.
Commerce with the US was essential to European nations. EU and US have the largest bilateral trade and investment relationship in the worldwhich reached an all-time excessive of 1.2 trillion euros ($1.29 trillion) in 2021, in line with knowledge from the European Fee, the EU’s government department.
Any further tariffs may put additional stress on the EU’s already moribund financial development charges.
“There can be a primary dialogue [on the outcome of the U.S. election] in Budapest,” a 3rd nameless EU supply advised CNBC on Wednesday morning in regards to the European Political Neighborhood (EPC) assembly that may start on November 7.
“We’ll see what sort of rhetoric [Trump] there can be, but when it isn’t very totally different, the primary problem can be Ukraine,” the third diplomat mentioned. “Our huge focus is to protect European unity,” the identical diplomat mentioned.
“The worst financial nightmare”
In a analysis notice on ING analysts mentioned on Wednesday morning that Europe’s “worst financial nightmare” had come true with the election of Trump.
“The looming new commerce warfare may push the eurozone economic system from sluggish development to full recession.” Germany’s already struggling economic system, which depends closely on commerce with the US, can be notably onerous hit by tariffs on European vehicles,” mentioned the group of analysts led by James Knightley.
“Regardless of claims by European politicians that they’re ready for a second Trump presidency, it stays unclear whether or not Trump can actually push for deeper integration, given the home challenges going through many European governments.” Europe will in all probability wait to see what insurance policies Trump really implements.”
Talking on the IMF’s annual conferences in Washington final month, German Finance Minister Christian Lindner warned there might be retaliation if the US begins a commerce warfare with the European Union.
“We want a diplomatic effort to persuade whoever enters the White Home that it isn’t in the most effective curiosity of the US to have a commerce battle with [the] The European Union,” he mentioned, including: “We should take into account countermeasures.”
